Today’s housing market splits into four distinct types. You’ve got cash buyers, buyers financing a purchase, owners who feel locked into a low rate, and builders with homes to sell. Which type you’re in changes how you should buy or sell. Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT agrees:
“There is no longer a housing market . . . There are four Americas.”
Here’s what each looks like, and what it means for you.
Cash Buyers: 1 in 4 Buyers Are Paying with Cash
If you already own a home, you may be able to buy your next place in cash thanks to your equity. In fact, 26% of existing home sales this summer were all-cash, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's roughly 1 in 4 buyers skipping a home loan entirely.
Data from Realtor.com shows most are at the very top and very bottom of the market by price point (see graph below):
For Buyers: If you’re able to buy in cash too, having no financing contingency means your offer is going to look really appealing to sellers. You may get a faster close and more room to negotiate.
For Sellers: A cash offer can mean less risk of the deal falling through, but that certainty sometimes comes with a lower number attached. Compare the whole picture before deciding it’s automatically your best offer.
Buyers Using Financing: They’re Not Getting Help from Rates, But They Are from Sellers
If you’re looking to take out a mortgage, you should know mortgage rates aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. Data from Fannie Mae shows nearly half of experts actually raised their long-term rate forecast this year (see graphs below):
That’s tough for homebuyers relying on a mortgage, especially first-time buyers. But it’s not all bad news.
While buyers may not be getting the lower rates they want, at least there’s help to be had if you ask sellers for what you really need. Redfin data shows almost half of May sales included a concession like a rate buydown or closing-cost credit from the homeowner.
For Buyers: Stop waiting on rates to drop. Negotiate the concession instead. If the payment works today, that's your signal.
For Sellers: Expect to negotiate. Build a concession into your pricing strategy from the start could be the thing that gets a deal done.
Rate-Locked Homeowners: Most Are Sitting on a Rate Below 5%
If you own a home already, you might not want to move and take on a higher rate than the one you’ve got. That’s the case for a lot of people. About 2 in 3 homeowners have a mortgage rate under 5%, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data (see graph below).
When a homeowner has a rate that low, it’s harder for them to want to move and leave behind that ultra-low rate. Because, they’d likely have to take on a higher one on their next home. Hence “rate locked” – they feel locked in.
And, according to Fannie Mae data, most experts think that lock-in will stick around another 3-5 years. That means this will continue to be a factor in how many homes come up for sale.
For Buyers: Fewer homeowners are listing, but the ones who do usually have a real reason to move. They’re often more flexible, motivated sellers.
For Sellers: Run the math on what your equity actually buys before ruling out a move. Got an FHA or VA loan? Ask about making it assumable. It's rare, but it's a real selling point.
Homebuilders: They’re Negotiating More Than You Think
If you’re looking at new construction, this might be your moment. According to the latest Census data, builders have more unsold new homes sitting around than usual, enough that it would take nearly 10 months to sell them all at the current pace (well above the normal 4-6 months pace). That's pushing builders toward price cuts and rate buydowns.
For Buyers: That's where the deals are right now. Just be sure to use your own agent and compare the whole incentive package, not only the price tag.
For Sellers: Lead with what a builder can’t offer – mature landscaping, an established neighborhood, and a house that’s ready today, not in 8 months. That can help your house seem like a better optiona
Bottom Line
Four different housing markets are running at once: cash buyers, financed buyers, locked-in owners, and builders. Each one plays by its own rules, and the right move for one is exactly the wrong move for another.
Let's figure out which one you're actually in and build your next move from there.
